JERSEY SHORE – In this exhaustive look at the exhausting 2024 election, we’re going to focus on some so-called “swing states” as well as some minor elections that might normally be lost in the confusion.
I think it’s funny that a lot of states are being called “battleground” or “swing” states since 2016. Trump’s popularity – and Clinton’s unpopularity – were anomalies. I think the political surface has evened out since then and the states are closer to their predictable ways. It’s also important to remember that 2016 had several strong 3rd party candidates: Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Jill Stein and independent Bernie Sanders. Those three muddied the waters and acted as spoilers.
A lot of prediction websites use polls, but I take them with a grain of salt. A poll might just count 700 people who just happened to pick up the phone to an unknown number – it’s hardly indicative of the entire region. Some polls don’t even use cell phones.
There is more at stake this election than just who sits in the White House. The current Senate has 49 Republicans and 47 Democrats, with four independents. There are 33 seats on the ballot. This year 10 of those seats are held by Republicans and 19 are held by Democrats – so Republicans have the easier job to gain a majority because Democrats have more to lose. All four independents are also up. I suspect the Senate races will be equally – or even more important – than the presidential race.
The House currently has 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats, and four vacancies. Every single House seat is up for vote on even-numbered years. I didn’t go too deeply into these races since there are so many of them.
Arizona
Arizona has only recently been a competitive state. The country will be watching how it spends its 11 Electoral votes and how the Senate race goes.
Biden won the state but that was the first time a Democrat broke through in decades. Because of that, prediction sites are calling Arizona a toss-up.
In 2022, Mark Kelly won the Senate seat 1,322,026 to Republican Blake Masters’ 1,196,308. A close race, to be sure. But not the closest race in recent history.
Also in 2022, there was a race for governor. Democrat Katie Hobbs (1,287,891 votes) narrowly beat Republican Kari Lake (1,270,774 votes).
In 2020, Biden (1,672,143 votes) narrowly beat Trump (1,661,686 votes).
Arizona’s senate race is more important.
Kyrsten Sinema, who won as a Democrat in 2018 and then went independent, is not running for re-election.
Earlier this year, in the primary election, Kari Lake got 409,339 votes to get the GOP nod over Mark Lamb, who received 292,888 votes. The Democrat, Ruben Gallego, ran unopposed and received 498,927 votes.
Trump likes Lake, but voters…maybe not as much. I usually don’t put much stock into polls but a Fox News poll put her far behind Gallego, and Lake used to be a Fox News anchor.
In all of Lake’s recent elections, there have been serious challenges from other Republicans. That eats up her time, money, and the news cycle. Meanwhile, the Democrats are more united, at least in that state.
All of this looks good for Democrats, but hang on:
In 2022, there were 1,434,838 registered Republicans. Now, there are 1,454,966
In 2022, there were 1,287,179 registered Democrats. Now, there are 1,195,696.
The number of registered Republicans went up slightly but the number of registered Democrats dipped dramatically.
There’s also a proposition on the ballot to “Provide for a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability.” Abortion issues will bring out voters of every stripe.
All of these issues make Arizona a state to watch.
Florida
Most pundits aren’t paying much attention to Florida, but they should be. Trump is favored to win the state and its 30 electoral votes (1/9th of the 270 that is needed to win). Every prediction site assumes Trump wins Florida, but if by some upset he doesn’t, then his path to 270 is going to be very rocky.
There are some things that put Florida into the running this year that no one has really been talking about.
There are six questions on the ballot in Florida this year, two of which could seriously tip the scales for Democrats. One is legalization of recreational marijuana and the other is constitutional protection of abortion. These are issues that will bring people out to vote who normally wouldn’t. In other words, all bets are off.
Now, sure, there are conservatives who want pot legalized and who want abortion rights protected, so they might vote for Trump and then vote for the ballot questions.
There might also be an opposite effect. Pro choice voters, who are often conservative, are very strong in their beliefs, and that question might bring them out in droves. I bet that these people also voted the last two presidential elections, though.
The point is, these two questions create variables.
There are 1 million more registered Republicans in Florida than Democrats. The disparity between them keeps growing. In 2019, there were actually more registered Democrats than Republicans.
How did this impact recent elections?
In 2016, Trump won Florida with 4.6 million votes to Clinton’s 4.5 million. In 2020, Trump won Florida 5.65 million votes to Biden’s 5.3 million. Would Harris get more votes than Biden? That’s a question on everyone’s minds right now. If she appeals to voters who haven’t registered a party, she will.
In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Republican Ron DeSantis got 4.6 million to Democrat Charlie Crist’s 3.1 million.
That was the same year that Republican Marco Rubio got 4.5 million to Democrat Val Demings’ 3.2 million to win the Senate seat.
Compare this to 2018, when Republican Rick Scott barely beat Democrat Bill Nelson. The difference was just 10,000 votes. This year, Scott is up against former House member Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. He’s seen as having a slight lead over her. However, he is also very unpopular. Otherwise, he’d have a good lead. This might actually hurt Trump’s chances. Democrats have targeted him as a weak spot, in the hopes of growing their Senate presence.
Prediction websites all have Rick Scott as the winner for this year’s senate race, but only barely. In fact, many prediction websites say Florida “leans Republican,” when we generally just think of Florida as deep red.
Clearly, Republicans do well in this state. Regardless, because of questions that might bring out unaffiliated, young voters, plus an unpopular Republican Senate candidate, and the fact that Harris has energized the Democrats in that state, Florida is one to watch this year.
Georgia
Democrats have been trying to lay claim to this state for years. Their fundraising messages keep saying that if they have a little more money, they can do it. For whatever that’s worth.
Most polls have Trump with a slight lead in Georgia, so he’s in the best position to win its 16 Electoral votes. Let’s look at some recent elections.
In 2016, Trump won Georgia 2,089,104 to 1,877,963. It was closer than anyone expected.
In 2018, Brian Kemp’s 1,978,408 votes for governor barely beat Stacey Abrams’ 1,923,685. Remember, this is the year of the Blue Wave, where Democrats did very well.
In 2020, Biden barely won the state 2,473,633 votes to Trump’s 2,461,854.
Also in 2020, Democrat Senate candidate Jon Ossoff lost to Republican David Purdue 2,374,519 to 2,462,617 (a difference of 88,000 votes). However, Georgia has a rule that if it’s too close it goes to a run-off election. Then, Ossoff beat Purdue 2,269,923 to 2,214,979 (56,000 votes). Yes, this is even narrower. No, it doesn’t make sense.
In 2022’s governor race, it was again Kemp vs. Abrams, and the result was the same but the margin was wider. Brian Kemp got 2,111,572 votes to Stacey Abrams’ 1,813,673 (with no Blue Wave to bolster her).
That same year had Democrat Raphael Warnock’s win over Republican Herschel Walker in a race so close it went to run-off (less than 40,000 votes the first time but almost 100,000 votes the second time).
There aren’t any questions on the Georgia ballot that would skew the vote either way, and there are no senate races (Ossoff is up in ‘26 and Warnock is up in ‘28). So, this will truly be a test of whether Harris has made enough in-roads there to keep the state blue.
Maryland
Democrat Ben Cardin is not running for re-election for the Senate and it’s surprisingly competitive. Republicans think they have a chance at flipping the seat but the state has a solid history of voting for Democrats so it’s not likely.
Michigan
Michigan is only a swing state because Trump won it once. Otherwise, it’s reliably Democrat. That’s the thing I’ve noticed in crafting this editorial – Trump is the only Republican who can win Democrat states.
In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by an extremely narrow margin, 2,279,543 to 2,268,839. Just 10,704 votes. People forget how close some of the swing states are. That’s where Trump really won in 2016. It wasn’t Kentucky or Texas, because those are always red. It was the states like Michigan and Pennsylvania that won him the presidency.
Michigan’s 15 Electoral votes could be decided by just 10,000 people because that’s the government we chose.
Biden won Michigan in 2020 by a narrow margin as well, 2,804,040 to 2,649,852. A difference of just 154,188 votes.
That means that in the span of four years, Trump grew his base by about 400,000 Michiganders. In the same span of time, about 500,000 more people came out for Democrat Biden than Democrat Clinton. Will more people come out for Democrat Harris? That’s the big question for Michigan and every other swing state.
Michigan will also see an election for senator. Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who has been in office since 2001, decided not to run again.
Democrat Elissa Slotkin has very close polls to Republican Mike Rogers. People who only vote in presidential elections are creating a big question mark on the outcome of this race.
The most recent senate election in that state was in 2020, when Democrat Senator Gary Peters beat Republican John James 2,734,568 votes to 2,642,233. Similar to Biden’s election.
Governor Whitmer is in the middle of her second term. In 2018, she won 2,266,193 to 1,859,534. In 2022, she won 2,430,505 to 1,960,635. An even bigger margin. She’s not up for re-election, but this shows how well Democrats do in Michigan if Trump isn’t on the ballot.
Montana
Everyone knows Trump is going to win Montana, but that’s not why the state is on my list.
RaceToTheWH.com, a site that I like, posits that the Republicans will flip a Montana Senate seat. It has a history of voting Republican, so that is likely.
Jon Tester is the lone Democrat serving a statewide elected office. He’s a farmer, and tends to be pretty moderate, so he has staying power. When he was last up for re-election, in 2018, he got 253,876 votes, narrowly beating Republican Matt Rosendale’s 235,963 votes. Remember, that was a Blue Wave that year. Maybe it was the Blue Wave that carried him.
Let’s look at some other recent elections. In 2016, Trump (279,240 votes) beat Clinton (177,709 votes). There was a slight spoiler with Libertarian Gary Johnson (28,037 votes).
In 2020, Trump (343,602 votes) beat Biden (244,786 votes) to win Montana’s 3 Electoral votes. Again, not a big surprise, since the state has voted for Republican presidents throughout the 2000s. What is interesting, though, is that Trump gained 64,362 votes in the four years he was president. The Democrats gained 67,077 votes during those same four years. It’s rare that both parties add to their rosters that closely.
Similarly, during the 2020 election, Republican Greg Gianforte (328,548 votes) won the gubernatorial seat over Democrat Mike Cooney (250,860 votes).
However, Montana also has a question to voters about providing “state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability,” which might bring out a lot of voters.
Keep an eye on Montana’s Jon Tester, even if the state gets called for Trump by 8:30 p.m.
Nebraska
Nebraska awards one Electoral College vote each to its two congressional districts, and the 2nd District has split from the rest of the reliably conservative state. Donald Trump won the district in 2016, but lost it to Joe Biden in 2020. The district is leaning in polls toward Kamala Harris this year. Basically, a lot of people will be talking about this 1 vote on election night. Whatever.
Nevada
There are 6 Electoral Votes in Nevada, which has been won by Democrats during the last four presidential elections.
Biden won Nevada 703,486 votes to Trump’s 669,890. Clinton won it 539,260 votes to Trump’s 512,058.
In 2022, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto (498,316 votes) beat Republican Adam Laxalt (490,388) for a Senate seat.
This year’s Senate election is between Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown. Rosen has been a senator since 2019. Brown has national recognition for his military service, which makes this an interesting race.
Both parties are pouring millions of dollars into the state to try to win the Electoral Votes and the Senate seat.
New Jersey
Yeah, believe it or not, our state is one to watch. Whether the news station watches, that’s another story. The state is predicted to go Democrat for Kamala Harris and Andy Kim. I bet the big newspapers already have that pre-written. We’re called a “Blue State” so they’ll call it for the Dems soon after the polls close. Like I said, Electoral College.
What’s more interesting is the race for the 7th District House seat. Democrat Sue Altman is mounting a strong campaign to unseat Republican incumbent Thomas Kean. She received slightly more votes in the primary than he did, if that’s any indication of popularity.
Kean only beat his last opponent, Malinowski, 159,392-150,701. This was in 2022 after the district was redrawn to be more Republican, so you would think that he would have done better. This is one spot that the Democrats are hoping to pick up.
One seat in the house being flipped is newsworthy even if it’s not huge news. It’s still the most competitive race in our state, and I’m sure it’ll be lost among the bigger profile races on election night.
North Carolina
In 2020, they voted in a Democrat for governor, a Republican for lieutenant governor, and Trump for president. North Carolina was the only state in which Trump won with less than 50% of the vote. He beat Biden by just 74,483 votes. The Democrat governor won re-election by a much larger margin of 248,185 votes. Crazy.
And speaking of crazy, the gubernatorial election is looking pretty insane and might have some repercussions.
North Carolinians actually elect their governor and lieutenant governor in separate spots on the ballot. This is why the governor is a Democrat and the lieutenant is a Republican.
The winner of the lieutenant governor election in 2020 was Mark Robinson, and he’s running for governor this year. I’m not going to get into some of the statements that have been attributed to him, but if you want to Google it, go right ahead. The point is, it’s looking bad for him. The Democrat he’s up against is the attorney general, who has popularity and a fraction of the scandal.
North Carolina’s two senators are Republicans. Neither are up for re-election. So, the state is trending Republican, but it’ll be late into the night before any news programs call this state and its 16 Electoral Votes.
Ohio
Yes, of course, Ohio is a swing state. I hope I never have to stop for lunch at a diner in Ohio. Every politician is going to try to sit down and talk to me.
Trump won it in 2016, 2,841,005 to 2,394,164. He won it again in 2020, 3,154,834 to 2,679,165. As opposed to other swing states, not even close.
And Ohio’s Senator, J.D. Vance, is Trump’s running mate.
Ohio’s other Senator, Sherrod Brown, is a Democrat and is in a fight for his life against Republican Bernie Moreno.
Is Ohio actually a swing state? Not in my opinion. It’s in the process of changing colors to red but the pundits haven’t figured that out yet.
Pennsylvania
Everyone’s eyes are always on Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral votes (down from 20 last election).
Pennsylvania went for Trump in 2016, who got just 44,292 votes more than Hillary Clinton. This was one of the states that people were surprised Trump won, because the state voted Dem going all the way back to Bill Clinton. In 2020, they went back to Dem, choosing Biden over Trump with a margin of 80,555. Close margins like this are tough to call.
Let’s look at some other recent races. In 2022, Democrat Josh Shapiro won the governor’s race over Republican Doug Mastriano by almost 800,000 votes.
The last senate race in 2022 had John Fetterman beat Mehmet Oz by 260,000 votes. However, Fetterman was a rising star – despite his stroke and other issues – and Oz was generally known as a quack whose actual address was in NJ.
This year, there’s a Senate seat up in PA. Bob Casey Jr. is the Dem incumbent being challenged by David McCormick. Casey is beating McCormick in the polls, but not by an insurmountable percentage.
Democrats have consistently won this state with a large margin – unless Trump was on the ballot. The results show that Trump is more popular in Pennsylvania than any Republican by themselves. They need him to lead the charge. He barely lost to Biden last time, but will he lose to Harris? And is his popularity enough to bring McCormick into the Senate?
Pennsylvania House members might bear next-day coverage, particularly in the case of their 1st District. Both sides are pouring tons of money into this race. Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick actually beat Democrat challenger Ashley Ehasz two years ago, roughly 201,000 to 160,000. They’re up for a rematch. It’s a long shot but you never know.
Another one to watch is Pennsylvania’s 12th House District, which Democrats flipped in 2022. No doubt the Republicans are going to be gunning for that back this year. Democrat Summer Lee beat Mike Doyle 184,000 to 144,000. The district has a history and social make-up too weird to go into here, but keep an eye on it for a possible switch back to Republican.
Texas
When researching, I noticed that a lot of websites had Texas as “leans Republican” or something of that nature, instead of the deep red that we actually know it to be. This is because in 2018, Senator Ted Cruz beat Democrat Beto O’Rourke only 4,260,553 to 4,045,632. The closeness of this election led people to speculate that Texas is almost a swing state. But 2018 had the Blue Wave. Also, O’Rourke was an extremely popular candidate facing off against an extremely unpopular Cruz. Cruz is up for re-election again this year, up against a fairly popular Colin Allred, but Cruz will probably be carried by Trump voters to victory.
Virginia
People are calling Virginia a battleground state but I don’t see it. The state has voted for Democrats for president – even when that Democrat was Hillary Clinton – for the last four cycles. Clinton’s VP pick, Tim Kaine, is up for re-election to the senate this year and is predicted to have a huge win over the Republicans’ relatively unknown candidate, Hung Cao. My prediction is that on election night a lot of people on your TV are going to be talking about Virginia for no good reason.
West Virginia
What? A state as conservative as West Virginia is one to watch this year? Yes, because we need to look at more than just the presidential election.
All 4 Senate seats held by independents are also up for grabs. One of these is in West Virginia.
Republican Jim Justice has the perfect name for a politician (whether sincere or satirical). He is the current governor, and a multimillionaire from inheriting a coal mining company. He is the favorite to win over Democrat Glenn Elliott. This would be an easy pick-up for Republicans in gaining a Senate majority.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is considered a swing state only because Trump tips the scales.
Trump was the first Republican president they elected since Reagan, and they voted for Reagan twice. Could Trump be a double winner? Maybe.
Trump narrowly won in 2016. Trump got 1,405,284 votes to Clinton’s 1,382,536.
Biden narrowly won in 2020. Biden got 1,630,866 votes to Trump’s 1,610,184.
The Senate race pits incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin against GOP challenger Eric Hovde. It’s an expensive race where Baldwin has a slight edge but Republicans have been gaining ground.
The most recent election, in 2022, had Democrat Tony Evers beat Republican Tim Michels in a close gubernatorial race, 1,358,774-1,268,535.
The only question on the ballot is a measure that would prevent noncitizens from voting. This could bring more people out to the polls than normally.
All this means Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral Votes are up for grabs.
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